I predict
More political musings...the Iowa caucuses are tomorrow. I think its going to be a little unpredictable, but I toss out my following predictions:
Democrats:
Obama 29%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 25%
Yes, I think its going to be THAT close...I hesitate to pick a winner and second and third place in the sense I think that it could be all jumbled up between these three and they are within a few points of each other. I think that Edwards has the chance to grab the whole thing. I chose Obama because the momentum is in his favor now. Hillary could pull it out too, but I think that's unlikely. If you've been watching the polling she has been steadily but surely declining in Iowa since mid-November.
Republicans:
Huckabee: 30%
Romney 26%
McCain 15%
I would have given Huckabee even a higher number had he not made a completely stupid campaign mistake in recent days. He called a press conference and declared he would not run negative attack ads on Romney, then proceeded to show the press the negative ads he wouldn't run! That is a very ham-handed stunt. He should fire his PR person, although I do think any seasoned PR person would not have done this, which means it was Huckabee's idea. Which means he's going to make a lot of mistakes. Plus, I think he fades after Iowa. Iowa Republicans make some pretty quirky picks at times- like Pat Robertson in '88. I understand Romney spent a crapload of money in Iowa and I think that gets you somewhere. The real story is McCain, I think people too easily dismissed him. I think he will finish third in Iowa but win New Hampshire. He will be around awhile. I don't know what happens to Romney, but I don't see him having momentum. He too, makes a lot of stupid mistakes. I kind of hope the nominee is Giuliani, because this man is a trainwreck. He doesn't have a skelton or two in his closet, he has a whole boneyard! Plus his messy private life and stance on social issues will keep a big block of Republican voters away from the polls. He's the easiest to beat.
So, there you have it. I could be completely wrong, or spot on- who knows.
Democrats:
Obama 29%
Clinton 26%
Edwards 25%
Yes, I think its going to be THAT close...I hesitate to pick a winner and second and third place in the sense I think that it could be all jumbled up between these three and they are within a few points of each other. I think that Edwards has the chance to grab the whole thing. I chose Obama because the momentum is in his favor now. Hillary could pull it out too, but I think that's unlikely. If you've been watching the polling she has been steadily but surely declining in Iowa since mid-November.
Republicans:
Huckabee: 30%
Romney 26%
McCain 15%
I would have given Huckabee even a higher number had he not made a completely stupid campaign mistake in recent days. He called a press conference and declared he would not run negative attack ads on Romney, then proceeded to show the press the negative ads he wouldn't run! That is a very ham-handed stunt. He should fire his PR person, although I do think any seasoned PR person would not have done this, which means it was Huckabee's idea. Which means he's going to make a lot of mistakes. Plus, I think he fades after Iowa. Iowa Republicans make some pretty quirky picks at times- like Pat Robertson in '88. I understand Romney spent a crapload of money in Iowa and I think that gets you somewhere. The real story is McCain, I think people too easily dismissed him. I think he will finish third in Iowa but win New Hampshire. He will be around awhile. I don't know what happens to Romney, but I don't see him having momentum. He too, makes a lot of stupid mistakes. I kind of hope the nominee is Giuliani, because this man is a trainwreck. He doesn't have a skelton or two in his closet, he has a whole boneyard! Plus his messy private life and stance on social issues will keep a big block of Republican voters away from the polls. He's the easiest to beat.
So, there you have it. I could be completely wrong, or spot on- who knows.
posted by moegirl at
8:54 AM
3 Comments:
I agree with your predictions (which is not surprising, as I've pretty much agreed with you from the first time I met you). Should be a very interesting winter and spring.
Have you watched "The West Wing"? I got the series for Charles, as I loved it and want to watch it again, curled up with him, especially given his interest in politics. It's so nice that he's got his citizenship and can now vote in these elections that he's been interested in for all these years.
By
Diana, At
3:44 PM
I'm not sure on your predicitions, which is rare. However, in Bend alot of people are hoping for Hilary (why i do not know)yes it is true they are not voting at this point, but it will be interesting how things turn out.
tina
had fun in the snow
By
Anonymous, At
8:31 PM
It was seem the evangelical Republikans have a high tolerance for big communications/PR mistakes...
By
Anonymous, At
9:33 PM
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